{"id":2491,"date":"2021-01-17T10:50:01","date_gmt":"2021-01-17T09:50:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/?p=2491"},"modified":"2021-01-17T10:50:12","modified_gmt":"2021-01-17T09:50:12","slug":"disasters-and-dystopias-where-are-we-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/2021\/disasters-and-dystopias-where-are-we-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Disasters and Dystopias: Where Are We Now?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s a darkly humorous meme doing the rounds:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Dystopian-Films.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Dystopian Films\" style=\"border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; float: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-left: auto; display: block; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; margin-right: auto\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Dystopian Films\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Dystopian-Films_thumb.jpg\" width=\"403\" height=\"400\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It makes you chuckle, but it\u2019s <em>wrong<\/em>. Firstly, I\u2019m not sure even the most disheartened would actually claim to be living the events of <em>The Matrix<\/em>. Of course, there\u2019s always the possibility that the machines have plugged us all into an artificial reality in order to harvest us as batteries, but [a] I\u2019m not sure that\u2019s the most efficient way of powering themselves and [b] don\u2019t you think they would have chosen a more cheerful script to keep the batteries happy? However more importantly, there are some very real aspects of our current situation which have been foreseen on film, and they\u2019re missing from the list. The list above are all great books or films, but they are a bit out of date. We need a new version. <\/p>\n<p>So what version of the picture actually reflects where we are now? Which disaster and dystopian movies and TV shows have portrayed or predicted key elements of our current predicament?<\/p>\n<p><em>Contagion<\/em>. Tick, tick, tick. Zoonotic pandemic starts with bats interacting with food animals in China, and spreads quickly through international travel. Tick. R0 is about 3. Tick. Significant sectors of the world economy shut down. Tick.&#160; Healthcare systems struggle to cope, but the professionals keep going till they drop. Tick. Part way through new variants arise which are even more transmissible. Tick! Well-known figures publicise quack \u201ccures\u201d and sow discord, but meanwhile hard-working scientists develop a real vaccine. Tick. OK, it\u2019s a flu not a coronavirus, it\u2019s more lethal, it affects all demographics roughly equally, and the US is portrayed as a willing participant in the WHO, but otherwise it\u2019s scarily accurate. Also, by and large America hasn\u2019t yet suffered societal breakdown as a result of Covid, but the article is yet young\u2026<\/p>\n<p>On a more positive note since this isn\u2019t the Zombie apocalypse, and we haven\u2019t (yet) taken to bombing infected towns, <em>Outbreak <\/em>and <em>World War Z<\/em> are off the list.<\/p>\n<p>While we\u2019re thinking about heath care provision, there is a great action\/conspiracy film about health care inequality: <em>Elysium<\/em>. We haven\u2019t quite got to the stage where the rich have to fly their Bugatti air-cars up to an orbiting hospital to get the care their money deserves, but many of the trends are recognisable. Tick.<\/p>\n<p>We are of course living through, and causing, another albeit slow-moving disaster: climate change and the Anthropocene mass extinction. You\u2019d think that this would be a rich seam for film-makers to mine, but so far that hasn\u2019t really been the case, although there are a few candidates. <em>Medicine Man<\/em> brilliantly portrays the wanton destruction of the Amazon and its biodiversity, and the effective war on its indigenous people. There\u2019s the added poignancy that we know John McTiernan and the producers wanted to film it where he\u2019d shot <em>Predator<\/em>, 5 years earlier, but that patch of rainforest had already been cleared. Tick. <em>The Day After Tomorrow<\/em> captures the causes and the political inertia we\u2019re seeing, but so far it looks like the outcome will be more like the hot, dry world of <em>Mad Max<\/em>. There were a couple of decent TV Movies in the early noughties about climate-change driven extreme storms (<em>Category 6: Day of Destruction<\/em> and the rather more bonkers <em>Category 7: The End of the World<\/em>), but where are the films about massive forest fires, habitat loss, desertification and rising sea levels? <\/p>\n<p>One related theme which has been well served is the risks around toxic waste, and the extreme corruption related to it. In my DVD collection there\u2019s <em>Fire Down Below, Sahara<\/em> and <em>Transporter 3<\/em>, and that\u2019s just scratching the surface. Even in <em>The Dukes of Hazzard<\/em> Boss Hogg\u2019s skulduggery is in aid of a plot to strip-mine the titular county! I\u2019ll take <em>Fire Down Below <\/em>as representative of the genre. <\/p>\n<p>Set aside such wanton callous indifference, and deliberate acts of villany or terrorism, many real and fictional disasters are caused by bosses ignoring warning signs in favour of political or commercial expediency. In the \u201ctrue life disaster\u201d genre we have real examples such as <em>Chernobyl <\/em>and <em>Deepwater Horizon<\/em><em>. <\/em>These are all brilliant, but if we\u2019re sticking to fictional portrayals of current or near future risks they are probably excluded. While we haven\u2019t yet got to the point where people are being eaten by theme park dinosaurs, <em>Jurassic Park <\/em>has this as a major theme, as does <em>Rise of the Planet of the Apes<\/em>. The latter also includes a major pandemic and the consequences of our mistreatment of other sentient species, so it gets a tick.<\/p>\n<p>Thinking about theme parks, we can probably ignore <em>Westworld<\/em> for now, but <em>Skyfire<\/em> gets an honourable mention as we have, sadly, seen tourists killed while visiting an active volcano which erupted at just the wrong time. However I\u2019ve excluded such as <em>The Wave<\/em> and <em>Supervolcano <\/em>which portray natural disasters which \u201cwill happen, we just don\u2019t know when\u201d, based on known science, but are not high on our current worry list.<\/p>\n<p>Turning to the human condition, which is really the focus of the diagram above, which films most accurately capture current threats and trends? The new series based on <em>Brave New World<\/em> doesn\u2019t really, although the concept of tourism to view poor people does ring a little true. However the previous film version of the story, <em>Demolition Man <\/em>is spot-on to a number of aspects of modern society, and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/2020\/demolition-man\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">remarkable piece of futurology<\/a> (detailed review <a href=\"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/2020\/demolition-man\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>). Tick. <\/p>\n<p><em>Minority Report <\/em>scores on a several points. The police are using a AI and data mining (albeit with a group of prescient individuals) to try to predict and prevent crimes. People are tracked, surveilled and recognised wherever they go and then subject to a barrage of tailored advertising. We don\u2019t yet have ubiquitous holograms, but otherwise many of the interactions look familiar. Tick. <em>Surrogates<\/em> accurately captures what may happen to humankind if we forgo direct physical interaction in place of the virtual, even if we don\u2019t yet have the physical avatars it portrays. Tick.<\/p>\n<p>AI is becoming a threat in its own right. Hopefully we\u2019re still some way off the worlds of <em>Terminator<\/em> and <em>Robocop<\/em>, but we are developing killing machines with increasing remote and autonomous capabilities. We also run the risk of our own data being used against us. Let\u2019s include <em>Terminator Genisys<\/em>, which covers both themes, and <em>Eye in the Sky<\/em> which deals with the moral and legal issues. After that you may be ready for some light relief: my favourite depiction of rampant AI, in a world not very far from our own, is the hilarious <em>X-Files episode Rm9sbG93ZXJz<\/em>. The challenges of being an analogue player in a digital world are the central theme of <em>Johnny English Strikes Again<\/em>, or the alternative version, <em>Skyfall.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not aware of a mainstream film dealing with the \u201cpost truth\u201d world in which objective reporting is subservient to self-selected news sources supporting the rise of conspiracies and the extreme right, but it was handled well in the penultimate series of <em>Homeland<\/em>. <em>Homeland <\/em>also deals with other major concerns, including Islamic terrorism and the uncomfortable global interactions around it, and what happens when the upper layers of government cannot be trusted. Tick, even if it stops short of a right-wing mob storming the Capitol in an attempted putsch. Perhaps there is still a place for <em>1984 <\/em>or <em>Farenheit 451 <\/em>in our list.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s talk about the end of Trump, shall we? Personally I\u2019d love to see El Presidente being hit by a meteorite or devoured by a velociraptor, but we don\u2019t always get what we want. However there is a film which portrays the last days of an unstable tyrant unable to accept defeat, and blaming everyone but himself. <em>Downfall<\/em>. Tick. The US version of <em>House of Cards<\/em> depicted a US president wilfully corrupting the electoral system to cling to power, but eventually having to give way. It\u2019s not quite right, as President Underwood is much cleverer, a skilful operator rather than a populist narcissist, and actually wants to do some good with his power, but it\u2019s close enough. Tick.<\/p>\n<p>So here\u2019s my assessment of how our current state relates to all these disasters and dystopias:<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/photoblog\/2021\/slides\/Dystopian Films 2.jpg\" \/>    <br \/><span class=\"smalltxt\">Disasters and Dystopias<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Is there any good news? Well at least we haven\u2019t included <em>Armageddon,Independence Day <\/em>or <em>Supernova<\/em>. We can control or prevent all the ills above, although whether we have the will to do so is debateable, and time\u2019s running out on climate change and deforestation, to the point where things may already be destined to get much worse before they get better.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s a darkly humorous meme doing the rounds: It makes you chuckle, but it\u2019s wrong. Firstly, I\u2019m not sure even the most disheartened would actually claim to be living the events of The Matrix. Of course, there\u2019s always the possibility &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/2021\/disasters-and-dystopias-where-are-we-now\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,2],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2491"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2491\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}