{"id":222,"date":"2003-09-25T05:01:00","date_gmt":"2003-09-25T04:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/index.php\/2003\/combining-risk-factors\/"},"modified":"2010-10-19T18:30:30","modified_gmt":"2010-10-19T17:30:30","slug":"combining-risk-factors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/2003\/combining-risk-factors\/","title":{"rendered":"Combining Risk Factors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/books\/review.php?book=demarco\">&#8220;Waltzing with Bears&#8221;<\/a> Tom DeMarco and Tim Lister introduce the very useful concept of the &#8220;Uncertainty Diagram&#8221;, the probability distribution for project metrics such as delivery date, expenditure or benefit delivery. This is used, for example, to assess the likelihood of delay from a given risk.<\/p>\n<p>However, they rely entirely on Monte-Carlo simulation. I believe that where the curve is defined by, or can be approximated by, a few discrete points, a relatively simple analytical solution can then be used in place of simulation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A simple analytical approach to combine the effects of multiple risk factors <a href=\"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/2003\/combining-risk-factors\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,9,2],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewj.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}